{"id":3797,"date":"2023-07-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.azafinance.com\/2023\/07\/28\/ghanaian-cedi-continues-three-week-rally-against-the-dollar\/"},"modified":"2023-07-28T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-07-28T00:00:00","slug":"ghanaian-cedi-continues-three-week-rally-against-the-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/azafinance.com\/ghanaian-cedi-continues-three-week-rally-against-the-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Ghanaian cedi continues three-week rally against the dollar","gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"text"}]},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"infogram-embed\" data-id=\"1plx0dppyqpw6ktqpwmjd0m0zqbz20l3vlm?live\" data-type=\"interactive\"><\/div><script>!function(e,t,s,i){var n=\"InfogramEmbeds\",o=e.getElementsByTagName(\"script\"),d=o[0],r=\/^http:\/.test(e.location)?\"http:\":\"https:\";if(\/^\\\/{2}\/.test(i)&&(i=r+i),window[n]&&window[n].initialized)window[n].process&&window[n].process();else if(!e.getElementById(s)){var a=e.createElement(\"script\");a.async=1,a.id=s,a.src=i,d.parentNode.insertBefore(a,d)}}(document,0,\"infogram-async\",\"\/\/e.infogram.com\/js\/dist\/embed-loader-min.js\");<\/script>\n<h4><b>Nigerian Naira (\u20a6)\u00a0<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Compiled by Ikenga Kalu<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The naira exhibited some volatility in the past week, although there was a net appreciation from USD\/NGN 875 to USD\/NGN 872. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Central Bank of Nigeria raised the benchmark interest rate from 18.5% to 18.75% at the latest monetary policy committee meeting to combat rising inflation caused by both the removal of the fuel subsidy and the convergence of the exchange rate windows.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> The acting governor of the central bank also hinted that it had started to intervene in the FX market in a bid to boost liquidity amid the existing naira volatility. We saw some <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">selloff of U.S. dollar<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">s after the naira touched the USD\/NGN 875 handle, which may represent the latest resistance level. We expect another retest and possible break past this level in the coming week.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Further reading:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Nairametrics &#8211; CBN increases interest rate to 18.75% in first MPC session since Emefiele\u2019s suspension<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Ghanaian Cedi (GH\u00a2)<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Compiled by Sakina Seidu<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The cedi continued its three-week rally against the dollar, trending downward on the 11.60 spectrum.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">At the just-ended monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on July 21, 2023, the governor&#8217;s statement highlighted economic factors that informed the decision to increase the monetary policy rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 30%. These highlights from the deliberation included the MPR increase in a quest to tighten access to the cedi, through the increase of lending rates to commercial banks and contrarily attracting foreign investors with the promise of higher interest rates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Another noteworthy development was the sign of recovery for the composite index of economic activity (CIEA), a direct indicator of an improvement in the volume of business activity in the country. The banking sector also showed an impressive change after the effects suffered following the domestic debt exchange program (DDEP).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">We expect the cedi to continue to stabilize over the course of the week as Ghanaians anticipate the details of the mid-year budget review.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Further reading:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bog.gov.gh\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/MPC-Press-Release-July-2023-240723.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Bank of Ghana \u2014 Monetary Policy Committee Press Release<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.modernghana.com\/news\/1246972\/bog-increases-policy-rate-to.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Modern Ghana \u2014 BoG increases Policy Rate to 30%<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/peacefmonline.com\/pages\/business\/economy\/202307\/490908.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Peace FM Online \u2014 Economy Expected To Show Positive Stabilization Signs<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/citibusinessnews.com\/2023\/07\/presentation-of-mid-year-budget-review-pushed-to-monday-july-31\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Citi Business News \u2014 Presentation of mid-year budget review pushed to Monday Jul 31, 2023<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><b>South African Rand (R)\u00a0<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Compiled by Alex Barmuta<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The USD\/ZAR closed at 17.7341 on Friday, July 21, 2023, before continuing to test lower levels. By\u00a0 Wednesday afternoon, it was trading around the 17.70 level. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">With no notable changes from a local perspective, a global increase in risk appetite led to some gains for the rand. This shift in investor sentiment was largely driven by a lower expectation for rate hikes from developed economies due to weaker than previously anticipated economic data, thus leading to an increase in investor interest in emerging markets. Another boost came from China, as it pledged to support its own economy to accelerate growth, this, in turn, also led to some gains for global risk assets who reap the benefits of positive chinese market news. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Looking ahead, we can expect the rand to continue to trade under 18 against the U.S. dollar. A move below the 17.50 level is possible if the U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate decision later today favours emerging markets.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Further reading:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/iafrica.com\/south-african-rand-strengthens-as-global-rate-hike-expectations-ease\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">iAfrica \u2014 South African Rand Strengthens as Global Rate Hike Expectations Ease<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><b>Egyptian Pound (EGP)<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Compiled by Mitchell Diedrick<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Egyptian pound closed out the week at USD\/EGP 30.75 on July 21, 2023. The new week started with the pound losing some ground, heading back toward 30.85 on Wednesday. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Egypt\u2019s biggest state banks \u2014 Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) \u2014 are offering 9% annually on three-year dollar-denominated certificates in an attempt to bring dollars into the financial system and ease the economic crunch. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">We can expect the Egyptian pound to continue trading at elevated levels in the coming week due to the current economic situation inside the country.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Further reading:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.devdiscourse.com\/article\/law-order\/2536175-egypts-top-state-banks-offer-dollar-deposit-certificates-to-ease-hard-currency-crunch\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Devdiscourse \u2014 Egypt&#8217;s top state banks offer dollar-deposit certificates to ease hard currency crunch<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><b>Kenyan Shilling (KSh)<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Compiled by Terry Karanja<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Kenyan shilling is trading at USD\/KES 142.10\/142.26, which is a drop from 141.50\/142.23 the previous week. This has led the country to increased costs of servicing its dollar-denominated debts and also exposed it to a higher import cost. Fitch downgraded Kenya\u2019s creditworthiness by moving the long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to negative from stable. Fitch put it at \u201cB\u201d, meaning the country stands at a high risk of loan defaults. The shilling may continue to be under pressure in the coming week with high dollar demand from oil importers and the manufacturing sectors.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Further reading:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.the-star.co.ke\/business\/2023-07-23-poor-fitch-rating-to-muddy-kenyas-fifth-eurobond-bid\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Star \u2014 Poor Fitch rating to muddy Kenya&#8217;s fifth Eurobond bid<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><b>Ugandan Shilling (USh)<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Compiled by Yashveer Singh<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This Wednesday, July 26, 2023, USD\/UGX traded at 3,630, strengthening by 0.28% compared to the previous trading session. Over the past four weeks leading up to the current date, the USD\/UGX exchange rate has gained 1.16%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Russia&#8217;s recent decision to <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">pull out of an agreement which allowed the export of Ukrainian agricultural goods via a safe channel through the Black Sea amid the continuing war is already reverberating far from the front lines of fighting in Ukraine. For years, East African countries such as Uganda, rattled by global climate change, have relied on Ukrainian grain exports for sustenance. Now, an end to the agreement could lead to rising consumer prices and further strain farmers and cash-strapped aid organizations already struggling to respond to challenges like drought.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Looking ahead, we project the USD\/UGX exchange rate to fall to 3,666.536.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Further reading:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/features\/2023\/7\/21\/concern-mounts-in-east-africa-over-halted-black-sea-grain-deal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Aljazeera \u2014 Concern mounts in East Africa over halted Black Sea grain deal<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><b>Tanzanian Shilling (TSh)<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Compiled by Kristin Van Helsdingen<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Tanzanian shilling remained stable against the U.S. dollar this past week as it traded around USD\/TZS 2445. The shilling strengthened slightly over the weekend, where it traded at USD\/TZS 2,443.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The first graphite mine in Tanzania is on track to start operating before the end of this year. With top-quality graphite being sourced from the ground, a big turn for the mining industry is expected in the new year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">As Tanzania continues to gain investor confidence under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, we can expect the shilling to remain stable. In the week ahead, we can foresee USD\/TZS to continue trading around the 2,445 level.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Further reading:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.miningreview.com\/battery-metals\/lindi-jumbo-tanzanias-first-graphite-mine-on-track-to-production\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">MINING REVIEW AFRICA \u2013 EXCLUSIVE: Lindi Jumbo \u2013 Tanzania\u2019s first graphite mine on track to production<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.standardmedia.co.ke\/article\/2001477928\/sibling-rivalry-is-kenya-losing-investment-deals-to-tanzania\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Standard \u2013 Sibling rivalry: Is Kenya losing investment deals to Tanzania?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><b>West African CFA Franc Region (XOF)<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Compiled by Jean C\u00e9dric Nando KOUA<\/span><\/i><b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Senegal has successfully raised XOF 33 billion on the securities market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Investors responded favourably to the Senegalese securities issue by offering up to XOF 42.75 billion against an initial amount of XOF 30 billion sought. The Senegalese treasury finally retained XOF 32.96 billion and offered investors a weighted average yield of 7.34% for the three-year securities and 7.24% for the five-year bonds.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Further reading:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sikafinance.com\/marches\/umoa-le-senegal-leve-33-milliards-fcfa-sur-le-marche-des-titres-publics_41781\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sika finance \u2014 UMOA: Senegal raises 33 billion FCFA on the public securities market<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h4><b>Central African CFA Franc Region (XAF)<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Compiled by Jean C\u00e9dric Nando KOUA<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Cameroon collected XAF 487 billion in customs revenue in the first half of 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">All duties, taxes and levies on taxpayers on border activities generated nearly XAF 487 billion in customs revenue in the first half of 2023. This amount is well above the target set at XAF 470.4 billion, which represents an achievement rate of 103.4% and a progress rate of 19% compared to the same period in 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Despite the good performance achieved by Cameroonian customs, many efforts still must be made to reach the annual target of XAF 1,004.7 billion budgeted.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Further reading:\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sikafinance.com\/marches\/cameroun-487-milliards-fcfa-de-recettes-douanieres-collectees-au-1er-semestre-2023_41806\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Sika finance \u2014 Cameroon: 487 billion FCFA of customs revenue collected in the 1st half of 2023<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><em>Issued by AZA Finance, this Newsletter is produced as a service to our clients. It is prepared by our dealing professionals and is based on their understanding and interpretation of market events. AZA Finance cannot be held responsible for any losses of whatever nature sustained as a result of action taken based on comments contained in this publication.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nigerian Naira (\u20a6)\u00a0 Compiled by Ikenga Kalu The naira exhibited some volatility in the past week, although there was a net appreciation from USD\/NGN 875 to USD\/NGN 872. The Central Bank of Nigeria raised the benchmark interest rate from 18.5% to 18.75% at the latest monetary policy committee meeting to combat rising inflation caused by [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false,"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"rendered","format":"html"}]},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[22,23,24,25,26,27,185,29,30,31,32,298,34,33,303,305],"class_list":["post-3797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fx-insights","tag-africa-foreign-exchange","tag-cairo","tag-cfa-franc","tag-dollars","tag-egypt","tag-egyptian-pound","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-fx","tag-fx-insights","tag-ghana","tag-ghana-cedi","tag-kenyan-shilling-rate","tag-naira","tag-rand-rate","tag-tanzanian-shilling-rate","tag-ugandan-shilling-rate"],"acf":[],"gt_translate_keys":[{"key":"link","format":"url"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/azafinance.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3797","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/azafinance.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/azafinance.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/azafinance.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/azafinance.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3797"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/azafinance.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3797\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/azafinance.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/azafinance.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/azafinance.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}